December 2010

I was thinking recently how inconvenient it was not to have a general term for iPhones, iPads, and the corresponding things running Android.

The closest to a general term seems to be "mobile devices," but that (a) applies to any mobile phone, and (b) doesn't really capture what's distinctive about the iPad.

After a few seconds it struck me that what we'll end up calling these things is tablets.

The only reason we even consider calling them "mobile devices" is that the iPhone preceded the iPad.

If the iPad had come first, we wouldn't think of the iPhone as a phone; we'd think of it as a tablet small enough to hold up to your ear.

There's no general term for iPhones, iPads, and their Android kin. "Mobile devices" fits any phone and misses the iPad.

What we'll call them is tablets. We only say "mobile devices" because the iPhone preceded the iPad. Had the iPad come first, we'd see the iPhone as a tablet small enough to hold to your ear.

There's no good general term for iPhones, iPads, and their Android kin. The answer is tablets — we only say "mobile devices" because the iPhone came first.

The iPhone isn't so much a phone as a replacement for a phone.

That's an important distinction, because it's an early instance of what will become a common pattern.

Many if not most of the special-purpose objects around us are going to be replaced by apps running on tablets.

This is already clear in cases like GPSes, music players, and cameras.

But I think it will surprise people how many things are going to get replaced.

We funded one startup that's replacing keys.

The fact that you can change font sizes easily means the iPad effectively replaces reading glasses.

I wouldn't be surprised if by playing some clever tricks with the accelerometer you could even replace the bathroom scale.

The iPhone isn't so much a phone as a replacement for one — an early instance of a pattern: most special-purpose objects will be replaced by tablet apps.

It's clear with GPSes, music players, and cameras, but how much gets replaced will surprise people: keys, reading glasses, maybe even the bathroom scale.

The iPhone is a replacement for a phone, an early case of a coming pattern: most special-purpose objects get replaced by apps. More things than people expect.

The advantages of doing things in software on a single device are so great that everything that can get turned into software will.

So for the next couple years, a good recipe for startups will be to look around you for things that people haven't realized yet can be made unnecessary by a tablet app.

The advantages of software on one device are so great that everything that can become software will. So a good recipe for startups is finding things a tablet app can make unnecessary.

Everything that can become software will, because the advantages are so great. A good recipe for startups: find things a tablet app can make unnecessary.

In 1938 Buckminster Fuller coined the term ephemeralization to describe the increasing tendency of physical machinery to be replaced by what we would now call software.

The reason tablets are going to take over the world is not (just) that Steve Jobs and Co are industrial design wizards, but because they have this force behind them.

The iPhone and the iPad have effectively drilled a hole that will allow ephemeralization to flow into a lot of new areas.

No one who has studied the history of technology would want to underestimate the power of that force.

In 1938 Buckminster Fuller coined ephemeralization for machinery being replaced by software. Tablets will take over not just because Apple are design wizards, but because this force is behind them, flowing into new areas no one who's studied technology would underestimate.

In 1938 Buckminster Fuller coined "ephemeralization" for machinery being replaced by software. That force, not just Apple's design, is why tablets will take over.

I worry about the power Apple could have with this force behind them.

I don't want to see another era of client monoculture like the Microsoft one in the 80s and 90s.

But if ephemeralization is one of the main forces driving the spread of tablets, that suggests a way to compete with Apple: be a better platform for it.

I worry this gives Apple another client monoculture, like Microsoft's. But if ephemeralization drives tablets, that suggests how to compete: be a better platform for it.

I worry about Apple gaining the power of another client monoculture. But ephemeralization itself suggests the way to compete: be a better platform for it.

It has turned out to be a great thing that Apple tablets have accelerometers in them.

Developers have used the accelerometer in ways Apple could never have imagined.

That's the nature of platforms. The more versatile the tool, the less you can predict how people will use it.

So tablet makers should be thinking: what else can we put in there?

Not merely hardware, but software too.

What else can we give developers access to?

Give hackers an inch and they'll take you a mile.

Developers used the accelerometer in ways Apple never imagined. That's the nature of platforms: the more versatile the tool, the less you can predict its use.

So tablet makers should keep asking: what else can we give developers access to, in hardware and software?

Give hackers an inch and they'll take you a mile.

Developers used the accelerometer in ways Apple never imagined — the nature of a versatile platform. So tablet makers should keep asking what else to give developers access to.

Thanks to Sam Altman, Paul Buchheit, Jessica Livingston, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this.

Thanks to Sam Altman, Paul Buchheit, Jessica Livingston, and Robert Morris for reading drafts.

Thanks to the friends who read drafts.